Bamber, Jonathan L., Michael Oppenheimer, Robert E. Kopp, Willy P. Aspinall, and Roger M. Cooke. “Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019): 201817205.
In the NewsYahoo FinanceJune 4, 2019
Can Lower Manhattan survive climate change? New York’s sea level rise plan faces pushback
While cities like New Orleans and Houston have had to confront the consequences of sea level rise in the wake of historic storms, devising their own tailored solutions to the problem, others remain uncertain how it will creep in and wreak havoc on daily life in the decades to come. Robert Kopp is a climate scientist and professor at Rutgers University who also serves as one of the directors of the Climate Impact Lab, which assesses the economic risks of climate change. “I think Manhattan is defensible across a range of sea level rise predictions,” Kopp said. “But there is a breaking point, and that’s why you need the contingency plans. There surely is a point where you either need to relocate people or you have to redesign the area to accommodate flooding.”
Featured Publication Read
Future sea level rise (SLR) poses serious threats to the viability of coastal communities, but continues to be challenging to project using deterministic modeling approaches. Nonetheless, adaptation strategies urgently require quantification of future SLR uncertainties, particularly upper-end estimates. Structured expert judgement (SEJ) has proved a valuable approach for similar problems. Our findings, using SEJ, produce probability distributions with long upper tails that are influenced by interdependencies between processes and ice sheets. We find that a global total SLR exceeding 2 m by 2100 lies within the 90% uncertainty bounds for a high emission scenario. This is more than twice the upper value put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fifth Assessment Report.Read